Comment on Outliers & Complexity

Wildcat Thu, Mar 11, 2010
important post, thank you Chris.
I had in one of my earlier posts on the subject defined a kind of futurism which I have called :Non-immediately distinguishable futures (NIDF): I do believe that what you refer to here as studying outliers and observing the flow of events into the next black swan is exactly the job description of a NIDF style futurist.

as an aside I am not sure that I agree with the statement :"Linear projections help us continue to get things done based on fairly reliable expectations". that it may appear so on very short sequences of time stamps I agree,what I am concerned about is the recurring pattern that these kind of 'fairly reliable' predictions instill in us. the very pattern that has led to the economic crisis is such an example. it is highly probable that in the very near future some of these predictions will need be relegated to smart (and maybe intelligent) machines, whilst as the sequences enlarge in scope and time we will need a new kind of futurism, one that does not use past predictions but uses a kind of cyberintuition, a non linear and highly chaotic, hybrid of perception and machine co-existing in a far from equilibrium situation. (we may of course need a better mind machine interface first)