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VD 2: Tree Of Prediction
This is a sequel on "Virtual democracy", but software described can have a lot of uses.
In short: even if we managed to make "vote on decision" reality, still here a problem lies: majority of the peoples voting doesn't have the time or the ability to predict how such an decision will further develop (what will be the consequences), and again here we have a subjective angle on which corruption prospers: you are forced again to trust some people that this decision will bring that events and so on. How do we overcome this?
I propose this software, which I call "The tree of predictions", which can be used in any kinds of predictions:
And here is the second image which I hope will save me tons of explanation on my bad English:
As U can see here, everyone can add an prediction on what will happened - just click "add sub event" and type-in a title and a brief description of your prediction, as well as probability of event, and then everybody adds their probability of event too.
Now, here lies the trick of this software: when everything is over, you click on the events that DID happened and then software calculates everybody's ability to predict things and adds them a certain weight index, for example:
user Monolith
successful predictions: 10%
weight index in average calculations: 0.1
now if user Rene, for example, has a bigger index of 4.23 clearly his predictions will value more in machine's calculating average prediction percent.
So, when posting a new issue to vote on - you make a new tree of predictions and everyone can get a better picture on what they are voting on.
In short: even if we managed to make "vote on decision" reality, still here a problem lies: majority of the peoples voting doesn't have the time or the ability to predict how such an decision will further develop (what will be the consequences), and again here we have a subjective angle on which corruption prospers: you are forced again to trust some people that this decision will bring that events and so on. How do we overcome this?
I propose this software, which I call "The tree of predictions", which can be used in any kinds of predictions:
And here is the second image which I hope will save me tons of explanation on my bad English:
As U can see here, everyone can add an prediction on what will happened - just click "add sub event" and type-in a title and a brief description of your prediction, as well as probability of event, and then everybody adds their probability of event too.
Now, here lies the trick of this software: when everything is over, you click on the events that DID happened and then software calculates everybody's ability to predict things and adds them a certain weight index, for example:
user Monolith
successful predictions: 10%
weight index in average calculations: 0.1
now if user Rene, for example, has a bigger index of 4.23 clearly his predictions will value more in machine's calculating average prediction percent.
So, when posting a new issue to vote on - you make a new tree of predictions and everyone can get a better picture on what they are voting on.
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