Member 1012
5 entries

Vaso Radic (M, 44)
Temerin, RS
Immortal since Dec 18, 2007
Uplinks: 0, Generation 2

admiral Monolith
Flash AS programmer from Serbia.
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    VD 2: Tree Of Prediction
    This is a sequel on "Virtual democracy", but software described can have a lot of uses.
    In short: even if we managed to make "vote on decision" reality, still here a problem lies: majority of the peoples voting doesn't have the time or the ability to predict how such an decision will further develop (what will be the consequences), and again here we have a subjective angle on which corruption prospers: you are forced again to trust some people that this decision will bring that events and so on. How do we overcome this?
    I propose this software, which I call "The tree of predictions", which can be used in any kinds of predictions:

    And here is the second image which I hope will save me tons of explanation on my bad English:

    As U can see here, everyone can add an prediction on what will happened - just click "add sub event" and type-in a title and a brief description of your prediction, as well as probability of event, and then everybody adds their probability of event too.

    Now, here lies the trick of this software: when everything is over, you click on the events that DID happened and then software calculates everybody's ability to predict things and adds them a certain weight index, for example:

    user Monolith
    successful predictions: 10%
    weight index in average calculations: 0.1

    now if user Rene, for example, has a bigger index of 4.23 clearly his predictions will value more in machine's calculating average prediction percent.

    So, when posting a new issue to vote on - you make a new tree of predictions and everyone can get a better picture on what they are voting on.

    Sun, Apr 6, 2008  Permanent link

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    sjef     Mon, Apr 7, 2008  Permanent link
    It would also need areas of expertise, some people may be economic or technology experts while others would have better social insight, local/global knowledge would play a role etc.
    Very interesting system though, weighing opinions based on merit of accuracy.
    The machine could calculate ratios easily enough, but who has power over assigning who was right and to what extent?
    monolith     Mon, Apr 7, 2008  Permanent link
    This is a bit technical issue, but here's an plastic example :

    Later, some kind of admin comes along and just clicks off the things that really happened (presented as yellow boxes). That is if thing happened - the end result is 100% and if not - 0%. Now, if my call was 80% and end result is 100% you may say that my accuracy was 80%, and if end result is 0% we shall say that it was 20%. Ok?
    As you can see from this picture above, we can allow a multitude of things of the same time-rank to happen, as not all of predicted things are exclusive with each other. And also the sum within one time-rank doesn't have to be 100%, which is an error from my previous pictures.