nagash     Sun, Jan 9, 2011  Permanent link
not so sure if "nuclear war and extinction" is really the only possible outcome in most of those scenarios, but either way, a great post as usual :)
BenRayfield     Mon, Jan 10, 2011  Permanent link
I left out a lot of details. What I expect is a gradual escalation of aggressive events between average people and/or governments, fueled by the unending advancement of technology which makes bigger weapons and communication of their secret crimes easier, and more than that fueled by their preemptive reactions to those things. I can't know for sure, but it appears very probable that the reason they're hiding so many things is what I described. It probably is much worse than they cause average people to think, and I had to adjust my predictions based on the reasons they caused that uncertainty to exist. I think some of them would allow (by doing small things with that side-effect and doing nothing against it, regardless of their advertisements that they are against it) wars to be started and continued to make themselves look less like criminals if it would have that effect. Its probable whatever the many governments are keeping secret are a tangled web of agreements and plans that diverges toward that for the same reasons the laws of thermodynamics say temperature will spread out instead of reducing in some area for no reason. On average, every time they change something to directly avoid aggressive action, they indirectly cause 2 times that much aggressive action in the future as a reaction to whatever they changed to fix the problem for their country or group instead of fixing it for the whole system (all 7 billion people, not just their masters... usually its only a few of their masters talking secretly). Their secrets prevent cooperation at the level necessary to avoid such esclation of aggressive action. When I say cooperation, I mean between most of the 7 billion people, not just their masters cooperating with each other. The aggressive events (including Wikileaks, freedom-destroying laws, torture for military information, etc) may increase slowly, but it will never decrease on average the way they do things, therefore it would have to get to any arbitrarily large amount (extinction), unless power shifts from those hierarchies (governments, etc) to somewhere else. Does that explain why it would lead to nuclear war and extinction? If not, the way the world is should be enough reason by itself to fix it.

Because  is 150 instead of 7 billion, the hierarchies and systems of control were created to reduce the level of cooperation needed to leaders instead of everyone with everyone else... That system has failed. It has been escalating aggressive action ever since technology started advancing exponentially. One of the goals of my artificial intelligence research is to use music as a user-interface to slightly change psychology to increase Dunbar's Number therefore solving the problem that caused the hierarchies to be created and naturally leading to the Punish The Nonpunishers way of organizing society obsoleting governments starting from the cycle of accountability that Wikileaks created.